BOOK REVIEW
By Ronald Scheurer
The Drunkard’s Walk – How Randomness Rules Our Lives
Leonard Mlodinow
2008
Statistics is often thought of as a rather dry subject, but actually it can get pretty wet. To many the mathematical part of it may seem like a rainless trip through a group of staid formulas. Ah, but the probabilistic part of it adds that final leap of personal faith one has to make on whether to take or not to take some particular action. Mlodinow explains that statistics are data; that effect usually follows cause, and with enough data, the probability of accurate predictions of future events is a safe game. So you leave the umbrella home and get soaked in the afternoon. Then the sun comes out.
Decision making involves choice among alternatives based on information that may be wrong, right, or purposely deceptive. Mlodinow explains the role that chance plays in choice. Are there usable principles that can minimize making poor decisions when apparent fortuitous situations beg for a leap of faith? Well, maybe; but understanding how randomness affects our daily affairs in ways over which we have no control is called fate.
Enter probability. Toss a coin once. Heads. Again. Heads. Four more times. Heads. Probability for the next toss is 50/50 heads or tails. In a chain of 10,000 tosses, the chances of six heads in a sequence is possible. Who knows? It could land on the edge! Randomness is not short term; it’s long term. And there is no way to tell when that winning streak will occur, nor how long it will last.
Early statistics centered on demographics and economics. Today it is applied to just about everything having over 15 specialties. Being born is a statistic. Being dead is a statistic. But aside from cut and dry data, how information is presented can bias the results of statistical analysis. Mlodinow does an excellent job explaining data collection and its use with examples drawn from history to the present.
The infamous bell curve and where some particular bit of data lies on it can be puzzling. Looking only at the top of the wave, if it is steep, implies one thing, but suppose the wave is spread out over a very wide range and points on the peak of the curve are not much higher than those on the center bottom of the wave?
How are lives affected when totally unrelated people are making decisions that unknown to each one causes them to converge at a single point in time and place? The train accident or massive highway collision involving multiple automobiles and trucks during a snow storm. Each person’s chance decision (a string of random decisions - numbers) placed them at that point.
Randomness rules.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Sunday, July 24, 2011
Book Review - Out Of Control
BOOK REVIEW
by Ronald A. Scheurer
Out of Control - The New Biology of Machines, Social Systems, and the Economic World
By
Kevin Kelly
1994
When something is out of control it generally would seem to be directionless; or conversely going in all directions at once, so it is difficult at times to see exactly where Kelly is headed with his interviews of computer experts. Most appear to have a desire to create a life form that can be manifest inside of a computer program that can not only replicate itself, but one that can evolve into an artificial, intellectual life form simulating the human mind and consciousness. This mind and consciousness program, as the operating system of a sophisticated machine or robot, then becomes the artificial life form to replace, in effect, humans who evolved naturally and hence less efficiently.
Evolution moves along much more quickly and efficiently in the artificial brain for any number of reasons suggested, and in just the right kind of robot, one beyond Robby the robot of “Lost in Space” fame, becomes capable of taking over some human decision making. The sentient Hal 9000 of “2001" fame isn’t mentioned, the master computer who took over “Discovery One” in Arthur C. Clark’s novel. Dave, the ship’s final survivor barely manages the disabling of Hal.
Not mentioned either is the 1956 film Forbidden Planet depicting the Krell civilization’s self-repairing gigantic machine capable of projecting thoughts into animated matter. Unfortunately for the smart but unwise Krell, and Morbius (Walter Pidgeon) those thoughts, less cooperative than cooperative toward their fellow beings resulted in the Krell self extinction, and the destruction of Altair IV. That machine was supposed to be the ultimate technological device for good.
Out of Control renders multiple futuristic possibilities for humanity based on the evolution of computer software, artificial intelligence that mimics and goes beyond human intelligence, and robotic hardware to carry such synthetic life. Will such synthetic life be self-replicating? And once started, can it be stopped by their human creators? Would such forms of life be recycled by birth and death as are all forms of naturally evolved life on earth?
Black holes are nature’s recycling machines for expended matter and energy. Both are pulled into the vortex of one cone and released through the point to point contact with an obverse cone. A new universe is born as an old one dies.
Macbeth: SCENE V. Dunsinane. Within the castle.
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury
Signifying nothing.
Humanity exaggerates its self-importance: Perhaps, the big bang was no more than a loud fart.
by Ronald A. Scheurer
Out of Control - The New Biology of Machines, Social Systems, and the Economic World
By
Kevin Kelly
1994
When something is out of control it generally would seem to be directionless; or conversely going in all directions at once, so it is difficult at times to see exactly where Kelly is headed with his interviews of computer experts. Most appear to have a desire to create a life form that can be manifest inside of a computer program that can not only replicate itself, but one that can evolve into an artificial, intellectual life form simulating the human mind and consciousness. This mind and consciousness program, as the operating system of a sophisticated machine or robot, then becomes the artificial life form to replace, in effect, humans who evolved naturally and hence less efficiently.
Evolution moves along much more quickly and efficiently in the artificial brain for any number of reasons suggested, and in just the right kind of robot, one beyond Robby the robot of “Lost in Space” fame, becomes capable of taking over some human decision making. The sentient Hal 9000 of “2001" fame isn’t mentioned, the master computer who took over “Discovery One” in Arthur C. Clark’s novel. Dave, the ship’s final survivor barely manages the disabling of Hal.
Not mentioned either is the 1956 film Forbidden Planet depicting the Krell civilization’s self-repairing gigantic machine capable of projecting thoughts into animated matter. Unfortunately for the smart but unwise Krell, and Morbius (Walter Pidgeon) those thoughts, less cooperative than cooperative toward their fellow beings resulted in the Krell self extinction, and the destruction of Altair IV. That machine was supposed to be the ultimate technological device for good.
Out of Control renders multiple futuristic possibilities for humanity based on the evolution of computer software, artificial intelligence that mimics and goes beyond human intelligence, and robotic hardware to carry such synthetic life. Will such synthetic life be self-replicating? And once started, can it be stopped by their human creators? Would such forms of life be recycled by birth and death as are all forms of naturally evolved life on earth?
Black holes are nature’s recycling machines for expended matter and energy. Both are pulled into the vortex of one cone and released through the point to point contact with an obverse cone. A new universe is born as an old one dies.
Macbeth: SCENE V. Dunsinane. Within the castle.
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury
Signifying nothing.
Humanity exaggerates its self-importance: Perhaps, the big bang was no more than a loud fart.
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Book Review - Lined Paper
Book Review by
Ronald Scheurer
If They Give You Lined Paper, Write Sideways
By Daniel Quinn
2007
... or maybe even turn the paper upside down. And if the paper is unlined? Well, it isn’t so much the paper as it is how you perceive the world around you, and you formulate your own thoughts about your place in it.
Most of the book is written as a series of dialogues between Elaine (pseudonym) and Daniel during a holiday weekend. In those talks Quinn discusses his former books and his wonder why readers did not seem to understand their message. In fact, it seemed to horrify some of them. Why?
The problem, obvious in retrospect, was Quinn’s different frame of reference: somehow “alien and mysterious.” Rather than seeing humanity from an earthbound view, he felt like a Martian anthropologist watching a supposedly rational species destroy the planet they live on. The point made is that many fairly well off humans today view their history on the earth as a highly successful god given adventure.
Lined paper makes writing on them a normal assumption. Writing across those lines makes a different assumption.
One of Quinn’s across the lines views is that Nature never was in balance. The idea of restoring that balance is relatively new and seems prompted by the fact that humans are very close to if not passed the tipping point of a whole new scenario for the planet; one not conducive to their own survival as a species. He also notes that if nature were in perfect balance, evolution would never have occurred. Humans would not be here. There is, however, no suggestion that humans return to pre-industrial times.
Further discussion presents a more probable scenario to an even earlier age. Stone Age living. During the Stone Age, there were no starving millions. Those images of humanity have only have been appearing for the last 70 years, yet food production has been increasing all of that time. Why? Any Stone Age man could find food with a little hunting and gathering. No one starved because their village territory rarely outstripped nature’s capacity to sustain their population. When it did they migrated to hunt and gather elsewhere. They did not stand on street corner with a cardboard sign.
How would rational Martians choose to live on the earth? Conversely, how would humans choose to live on another planet if it could initially support them with found food, water, and shelter? Would they have learned anything about what they did to the earth?
Elaine asks Quinn if he believes in god? Belief or disbelief in something that may or may not exist is not a universal human activity, though cross culturally is fairly common. God is given a performance review, and it would seem that either god does act in mysterious ways or people simply behave stupidly. Suppose there is no god, and the myths that there is/are (one or many) are merely tales told over the centuries by religious hucksters and politicians to acquire power, control, and wealth over populations not sustainable by local territories?
If politicians were given the same performance review as god, how would they fair? Would they too not act in mysterious ways to preserve their presumed status as gods on earth. Do they lead wisely, or do spend most of their time bickering over legislative details until their own ten commandments no longer garner enough votes for re-election.
Today, who lives at the hands of the gods? Many people in the developed world; most in the rest of the world. Why? Because it is easier to follow than to think for themselves. Clerically revised religions have for centuries told their ecclesiastic members and congregations that god gave them dominion over just about everything on the planet. They seem to have taken that to heart, but without much soul.
One of Quinn’s readers raises the issue of population control, or more precisely, at what point
will it become impossible to supply food to the local human biomass let alone to the world when the resources now used to do that drop below availability? Quinn doubts that the planet’s ecological systems could survive a population level of nine billion. He is not alone.
Appendix I - The New Renaissance - An address delivered by Dan Quinn at the University of Texas Health Science Center in Houston, March 7, 2002, is printed at the end of the book. It is a concise reading of the ideas appearing in his earlier books.
Appendix II - Our Religions: Are They the Religions of Humanity Itself? delivered as a Fleming Lecture in Religion, Southwestern University, Georgetown Texas, October 18, 2002, is also included in the book. It’s a short look at how religions got humanity into its current cul-de-sac.
RAS - 7/16/11
Ronald Scheurer
If They Give You Lined Paper, Write Sideways
By Daniel Quinn
2007
... or maybe even turn the paper upside down. And if the paper is unlined? Well, it isn’t so much the paper as it is how you perceive the world around you, and you formulate your own thoughts about your place in it.
Most of the book is written as a series of dialogues between Elaine (pseudonym) and Daniel during a holiday weekend. In those talks Quinn discusses his former books and his wonder why readers did not seem to understand their message. In fact, it seemed to horrify some of them. Why?
The problem, obvious in retrospect, was Quinn’s different frame of reference: somehow “alien and mysterious.” Rather than seeing humanity from an earthbound view, he felt like a Martian anthropologist watching a supposedly rational species destroy the planet they live on. The point made is that many fairly well off humans today view their history on the earth as a highly successful god given adventure.
Lined paper makes writing on them a normal assumption. Writing across those lines makes a different assumption.
One of Quinn’s across the lines views is that Nature never was in balance. The idea of restoring that balance is relatively new and seems prompted by the fact that humans are very close to if not passed the tipping point of a whole new scenario for the planet; one not conducive to their own survival as a species. He also notes that if nature were in perfect balance, evolution would never have occurred. Humans would not be here. There is, however, no suggestion that humans return to pre-industrial times.
Further discussion presents a more probable scenario to an even earlier age. Stone Age living. During the Stone Age, there were no starving millions. Those images of humanity have only have been appearing for the last 70 years, yet food production has been increasing all of that time. Why? Any Stone Age man could find food with a little hunting and gathering. No one starved because their village territory rarely outstripped nature’s capacity to sustain their population. When it did they migrated to hunt and gather elsewhere. They did not stand on street corner with a cardboard sign.
How would rational Martians choose to live on the earth? Conversely, how would humans choose to live on another planet if it could initially support them with found food, water, and shelter? Would they have learned anything about what they did to the earth?
Elaine asks Quinn if he believes in god? Belief or disbelief in something that may or may not exist is not a universal human activity, though cross culturally is fairly common. God is given a performance review, and it would seem that either god does act in mysterious ways or people simply behave stupidly. Suppose there is no god, and the myths that there is/are (one or many) are merely tales told over the centuries by religious hucksters and politicians to acquire power, control, and wealth over populations not sustainable by local territories?
If politicians were given the same performance review as god, how would they fair? Would they too not act in mysterious ways to preserve their presumed status as gods on earth. Do they lead wisely, or do spend most of their time bickering over legislative details until their own ten commandments no longer garner enough votes for re-election.
Today, who lives at the hands of the gods? Many people in the developed world; most in the rest of the world. Why? Because it is easier to follow than to think for themselves. Clerically revised religions have for centuries told their ecclesiastic members and congregations that god gave them dominion over just about everything on the planet. They seem to have taken that to heart, but without much soul.
One of Quinn’s readers raises the issue of population control, or more precisely, at what point
will it become impossible to supply food to the local human biomass let alone to the world when the resources now used to do that drop below availability? Quinn doubts that the planet’s ecological systems could survive a population level of nine billion. He is not alone.
Appendix I - The New Renaissance - An address delivered by Dan Quinn at the University of Texas Health Science Center in Houston, March 7, 2002, is printed at the end of the book. It is a concise reading of the ideas appearing in his earlier books.
Appendix II - Our Religions: Are They the Religions of Humanity Itself? delivered as a Fleming Lecture in Religion, Southwestern University, Georgetown Texas, October 18, 2002, is also included in the book. It’s a short look at how religions got humanity into its current cul-de-sac.
RAS - 7/16/11
Friday, July 15, 2011
Book Review
BOOK REVIEW
by Ronald A. Scheurer
Disability, Difference, Discrimination
By
Silvers, Anita; Wasserman, David; and Mahowald, Mary B.
1998
The number of synonyms that can be used to describe various disabilities and the degree to which those disabilities affect the afflicted can seem endless after reading the points and counterpoints of these authors. What constitutes a disability and to whom? How is one’s disability perceived by the person affected, and at what point was that perception conceived? Before or after its occurrence? How did the disability occur? Is it permanent or temporary. And what is the dis-abled’s felt need for compensation or accommodation by society for transportation or other access compared to others?
The other side of the coin considers the degree to which society accepts the claims of the disabled for compensation. accommodation, or both. Are these claims honored in the name of social justice or moral honor. Who pays, how much, and for how long? What accommodations are needed for various disabilities to match the equal access of walking, talking, hearing, and sighted others? Can any of this be legislated and equitably enforced by government as determined by lobbied politicians?
To what extent does accommodating the disabled inconvenience so called normal walking, sighted, and hearing people? What is their ethical position on helping the crippled, the blind, or the deaf depending on their relationships?
Other issues: If the physically handicapped have limited to access to schools and jobs, their disadvantage is largely caused by the environmentally constructed world that caters to the normally able. Is this morally fair in a society that claims equal opportunity for all regardless of race, gender, sexual orientation, national origin, religious preference, etc. The list of possible differences between any two people could be endless, and in the competitive society many countries on the planet have become, differences give certain groups the edge in the search for success, wealth, and fame.
For insight into the world of the disadvantaged irrespective of the causes, the book is an excellent introduction to the world of people with physical or cognitive problems. It also examines issues felt by their caretakers. While its authors seem to use many ten-dollar words to note differences in and justifications to their own ideas, a few more one-to-five dollar words and shorter sentences would make the book more accessible to average readers.
There is an excellent afterword in the book written by Lawrence C. Becker.
by Ronald A. Scheurer
Disability, Difference, Discrimination
By
Silvers, Anita; Wasserman, David; and Mahowald, Mary B.
1998
The number of synonyms that can be used to describe various disabilities and the degree to which those disabilities affect the afflicted can seem endless after reading the points and counterpoints of these authors. What constitutes a disability and to whom? How is one’s disability perceived by the person affected, and at what point was that perception conceived? Before or after its occurrence? How did the disability occur? Is it permanent or temporary. And what is the dis-abled’s felt need for compensation or accommodation by society for transportation or other access compared to others?
The other side of the coin considers the degree to which society accepts the claims of the disabled for compensation. accommodation, or both. Are these claims honored in the name of social justice or moral honor. Who pays, how much, and for how long? What accommodations are needed for various disabilities to match the equal access of walking, talking, hearing, and sighted others? Can any of this be legislated and equitably enforced by government as determined by lobbied politicians?
To what extent does accommodating the disabled inconvenience so called normal walking, sighted, and hearing people? What is their ethical position on helping the crippled, the blind, or the deaf depending on their relationships?
Other issues: If the physically handicapped have limited to access to schools and jobs, their disadvantage is largely caused by the environmentally constructed world that caters to the normally able. Is this morally fair in a society that claims equal opportunity for all regardless of race, gender, sexual orientation, national origin, religious preference, etc. The list of possible differences between any two people could be endless, and in the competitive society many countries on the planet have become, differences give certain groups the edge in the search for success, wealth, and fame.
For insight into the world of the disadvantaged irrespective of the causes, the book is an excellent introduction to the world of people with physical or cognitive problems. It also examines issues felt by their caretakers. While its authors seem to use many ten-dollar words to note differences in and justifications to their own ideas, a few more one-to-five dollar words and shorter sentences would make the book more accessible to average readers.
There is an excellent afterword in the book written by Lawrence C. Becker.
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